Nothing you type here is sent anywhere — it is calculated in your browser and never leaves it.
Put percentages in and you get the expected percentage return per trade. Put dollars in and you get expected dollars. Either way, positive means the strategy makes money over a large enough sample and negative means it does not, regardless of how the last few trades felt.
A 70% win rate with an average win of 2% and an average loss of 5% produces −0.10% per trade. A 40% win rate with a 9% average win and a 3% average loss produces +1.80%. The second trader is wrong six times out of ten and makes eighteen times as much per trade.
This is why "what's your win rate?" is close to a useless question, and why raising the win rate is usually the wrong lever to reach for. The full explanation is here.
Under 30 trades it is mostly noise. Around 50 it begins to stabilise. Past 100 it is reasonably trustworthy — provided you have not changed strategy inside the sample.
That caveat matters more than the sample size. Expectancy averaged across two different approaches in two different market conditions is an average of things that should never have been averaged. Segment by setup and by market environment before drawing conclusions from it.
The break-even win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + R), where R is your reward-to-risk ratio. At 1:1 you need 50%. At 1:3 you need 25%. Anything above that figure is profit, which is why some of the most profitable approaches in existence are wrong more often than they are right.
Knowing your own number changes what a losing streak means. At a 25% break-even rate, four losses in a row is unremarkable. At 50% it is worth examining.
TradePiko does this on every trade you have actually taken — automatically, from your broker.